Charlie Paxton
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During the past year 121 National Weather Service (NWS) offices initiated the Interactive Forecast Preparation System (IFPS) to produce digital gridded forecasts. This new system is a radical change from previous NWS forecast methods of looking at observational and Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) model data, formulating a forecast, and then typing the forecast to produce a text product. Now forecasters examine observed and model data and can input those data into a graphical drawing environment. Specialized contour and assignment tools allow forecasters to adjust gridded forecast fields to meet their forecast expectations. Forecasters at each forecast office have intimate knowledge of their forecast area and can tailor the forecast for local effects. Digital forecasts from each of these coordinating 121 NWS offices are "quilted" together to form the National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD). This national database is available free of charge to any potential users. Users may extract point or areal data from the grids either online or from the set of downloaded grids. Although prototype grids are available now, the data will become official during the summer of 2003. The fundamental part of the IFPS is the Graphical Forecast Editor (GFE). The GFE is more than just an editor though. It is a graphical analysis tool. Built-in Python scripting language capability allows forecasters to initiate complex grid calculations on model data and forecast grids. One calculation under development and testing is a wildfire threat index that is more flexible and comprehensive than other indices. This index is based on calculations within the varying mixed layer. First surface moisture (typically relative humidity) and wind is assessed, then mixed layer averages of moisture and wind are assessed. Next a stability computation is made for the mixed layer. Finally an assessment of fuel moisture is made. Using current and forecast surface and mixed layer wind forecasts simple trajectory and dispersion calculations can be made. These calculations don't replace high-resolution NWP models or coupled atmosphere-fire models but can be run quickly to provide an initial first guess. Although the IFPS is a new system, it has shown considerable potential for producing new products tailored for fire weather. |